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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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