A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
